International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
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[FROM: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Fire/Regional/Amazonia/SST_Fire_Forecast.html] These graphs include July-September fire season anomaly hindcasts and forecasts in the Western Amazon. The incidence is on a standardized scale and is based on the north tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal forecast issued in April, May and June. Positive values indicate an expected active fire season and negative values stand for a mild fire season. Lead 1 stands for the first trimester SST forecast and Lead-2 for the the second trimester SST forecast. For example, March Lead-1 forecast uses April-June SST forecast to calculate the NTA index and predict the following JAS fire season. March Lead-2 uses May-July SST forecast to calculate the NTA and predict JAS fire season and so on. As we advance in the seasons, the more accurate the forecast is expected to be. Use the drop-down menus at the top of the page to select the map field (Forecast or Observed) and the forecast issue month to display.